This has certainly been a strange weather year, with no winter to speak of, very dry conditions, and unusually warm temperatures this spring. Tanja Fransen with the Glasgow weather office reports that we can expect the odd weather to continue.
“The latest Climate Outlook isn’t showing anything special in May (equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation),” she said in her newsletter. “The ones that did catch my eye were the probability of below normal precipitation for May-June-July, and then the above normal temperatures in the Sep-Oct-Nov and Oct-Nov-Dec time frame. You can look at all the outlooks yourself at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.”
She continues, “Lastly, starting this weekend through May 1, the forecast and the outlooks are showing above normal temperatures. We would normally see readings in the 60s for highs this time of year, but we will have mid 70s to mid 80s possible during that time frame. If you need to burn, please make sure to check the forecast before doing so, and check with your dispatch office first as well. Warm temperatures, low humidity, abnormally dry conditions and strong winds are a significant problem for fire conditions this year, and most of our area fire departments are running well ahead of normal on fire calls.”
Severe storms have hit areas of the US in recent weeks, so Fransen reminds people what weathercasters mean when they talk about weather watches, warnings, and tornado ratings.
“A watch means severe weather is possible in the next 6 hours across a broad area. It’s time to put things away, and think about what you will do if a warning is later issued,” she explains. “A warning is issued for 1” hail, 58 mph or higher winds, or a tornado. This means we expect it to happen in the next hour or it is already occurring. At this point you should move indoors, into a safe shelter. We do not issue “warnings” for severe weather days in advance, it’s called an outlook.”
She continues, “Tornadoes are not rated until after they are over. They are rated based on the damage that they cause. A mile wide tornado that lasts 20 minutes and travels 20 miles, but causes no damage is an EF-0. A ¼ mile wide tornado that last 5 minutes and destroys a grain elevator will be rated much higher. It generally takes 24 hours or more before a rating is assigned, and only the National Weather Service can assign a rating.”
Fransen offers various websites for those interested in keeping track of the weather “To learn more about severe weather in Montana, visit our website: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/byz/severe/index.php?wfo=ggw,” she says. “Also, some of the best videos I’ve seen on being prepared for disaster are being done by the Metro Kansas City Emergency Management Agencies. If you have a few minutes (2-3 minutes per video), these funny videos really get you thinking of the easy things you could and should do to prepare for disaster.”
Episodes 1-6: http://www.youtube.com/user/PrepareMetroKC?feature=watch
Fransen also gives a web site that provides an interesting wind map. “Two scientists with Google took the NWS wind forecasts, and put them into a pretty cool map that is animated and updated each hour. You can pick out high pressure (winds rotating clockwise) and low pressure systems (winds rotating counter-clockwise), as well as frontal boundaries (winds merging together). Check it out; it really is one of the neatest things I’ve seen in a long time,” she says. http://hint.fm/wind/index.html
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